Although not many news outlets are reporting it today, we’re seeing a curious twist as gold prices are falling, down more than 2% from roughly $4,390/oz to as low as under $4,200. At the same time, the Bitcoin price (BTC USD) is holding steady just under $107,000, with a 1.6% daily gain.
Trading volumes for BTC USD spiked near $78 billion in the last day, a slight hint that money is rotating out of traditional assets and into crypto.
The idea of a wealth rotation to BTC USD is gaining traction. Bitcoin’s market cap sits around $2.13 trillion, showing the resilience of the top coin even as gold pulls back.
On‑chain and ecosystem data back this narrative as the stablecoin market cap is up. A monthly increase of 5.7% to $307 billion, per DefiLlama, with DeFi total value locked (TVL) stands near $149 billion, with DEX volume up 3.8% week‑over‑week.
(source – Stablecoins MarketCap, Defillama)
Technically, BTC USD looks encouraging. On the daily chart, MACD has shown a bullish crossover. Circulating supply is getting tightened on every halving, which feeds the scarcity narrative, one of
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pros against gold.
On top of that, the correlation data between Bitcoin and gold is interesting. Short‑term (30‑day) correlation has dropped into negative territory (‑0.54), meaning in the near term they’ve moved in opposite directions. However, over longer timeframes (90‑ and 365‑day), the correlation remains moderately positive (0.39 and 0.60, respectively).
In plain language, gold dumping doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin must dump. In fact, it’s likely signaling the opposite. So, what’s next?
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Bitcoin Price Strength Building as Indicators Support BTC USD Upside: Sentiment, Market Positioning & the Bull Case
Sentiment is firmly in the “fear” camp. The crypto fear & greed index currently reads 23/100 according to CoinCodex, which is classified as Extreme Fear. Historically, readings this low often presage positive turns for the Bitcoin price. As Buffet says:
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy
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On social media, tracked samples show more bullish than bearish chatter. We asked GROK to gauge the sentiment from 50 bullish vs 50 bearish posts, and the AI model comes with data that shows bearish posts engage more users. Based on this, we can easily say that the sentiment is at rock bottom at the moment.
(source – GROK)
On Polymarket, bettors are leaning toward BTC USD to dip under $100,000 by year‑end with 68% probability. But herein lies the contrarian edge: when the crowd expects stagnation or a drop, often the market surprises to the upside via a squeeze of shorts or rotation of funds.
(source – Polymarket)
Notably, Michael Saylor in recent commentary sounded cautious about the near term, yet his long‑term stance remains unchanged. Some interpret this cautious tone as a setup of sorts, positioning for a move higher, while many expect weakness. According to him, this dip is a gift.
Volatility is a gift to the faithful.
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 17, 2025
When gold is retreating and Bitcoin price is firming, the possibility of capital flowing into BTC USD becomes real. With ecosystem metrics improving, sentiment low, supply tight, and technicals showing promise, we could be at the early stage of a wealth rotation.
Forget the news and the bearishness today, Bitcoin and crypto might be setting up for their next move.
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